Consolidation Ending in USDZAR

Price action suggest we may have bottomed in wave 4 this morning.Wave e ended with a 'throwunder' the triangle's lower boundary followed by a quick reversal .8 hourly bollinger bands have turned up and stochastics are trying to turn higher from oversold readings .A move above 10.3200 would complete the triangle .Targets are 10.7000-10.85000.A move below 9.9200 would weaken this scenario and below 9.8200 would negate it.

USDZAR Consolidating Before Terminal Thrust Higher

USDZAR looks to be consolidating in a wave 4 triangle .This setback looks like wave e and should hold above 9.8200. Once complete we should see a sharp move higher out of the triangle .The thrust target (the widest part of the triangle) is around 80 c , which will give a target of about 10.8000 depending on where wave e bottoms .10.8000 is also the top of a longer term parallel channel  so is an attractive target.This move should be terminal and once complete we should see  a larger pullback in USDZAR .Any move below 9.8200 now would invalidate the triangle and we would turn neutral.

USDZAR Completing Triangle Wave 4 Before a Sharp Move Higher

USDZAR looks to complete a 4th wave triangle before thrusting higher .A setback in wave e is required before what should be a very sharp move higher.

There is an alternative though.We have been tracking the wedge pattern seen in 2001 very closely (see charts above) Notice once USDZAR broke out of the larger wedge pattern it formed a smaller ,tighter rising wedge pattern before thrusting terminally to a new high.We may be seeing something similar now .Under either scenario we are looking for a sharp move higher in USDZAR over coming weeks .The top of the parallel channel comes in at around 10.8000 ( depending on when we hit it) but we would not be surprised to see an overshoot .Once complete USDZAR should have it's largest correction since January 2011.

USDZAR Consolidating Before Trading Higher. Major High Registered in ALSI ?

USDZAR continues it's wave 4 consolidation before thrusting higher .If this is a triangle (slightly preferred) than an up /down sequence is needed before thrusting higher in wave 5 .If a flat is in play wave C will test the 9.6600 wave A low before thrusting higher in wave 5 .Our targets for wave 5 are 10.6000-11.0000.

R186 Yields

TOP40 Daily


The wave count on the ALSI counts as complete .We are looking for a very deep bear market over the next few years.The initial leg down targets 33000 the previous wave 4 but we expect it to trade a lot lower than that.The spike in bond yields over the last few weeks is a sign that liquidity in the markets is beginning to shrink despite the best efforts of global central banks.Once this move begins to accelerate the belief in the omnipotence of Central Banks will disappear and this will cause panic.

USDZAR Range Trading Below Recent High

USDZAR is mired in a choppy wave 4 correction .It may take the form of a triangle (more range trading between 9.7000-10.3000) or a flat ( retest of 9.6600 low) Once complete we should get a very sharp thrust higher .It is possible that wave 4 is complete at the 9.6600 low already .

USDZAR Bounce From Yesterday's Low Looks Corrective

USDZAR PLUNGES INTO FIB SUPPORT

USDZAR made a near term top amidst universal bearish press coverage both local and abroad late last week .We have moved quickly into fib support which extends down to 9.4200 .This support includes the area of the previous 4th wave triangle shown on chart.This move may be the 1st leg of what will turn out to be a 3 leg correction .So we may get a bounce over next few sessions and than another move lower to complete the correction .I suspect this may take the form of a sideways time consuming market and most of the price destruction is complete.